Methodology
INFUSE utilizes a combination of strategy development methods, tools and techniques derived from differing sources to provide a tailored solution for each client engagement. The broad field of Strategic Foresight and Future Studies along with more focused methods such as Value Discipline, Balanced Scorecard and Business Process Re-engineering are but a few of the many methods that we study in-depth and draw upon when appropriate.
Based upon more than thirty years of practical experience in designing and facilitating many clients through strategy development, planning and execution, we have found the best results demand an approach that is tailored to the unique needs of each organization. There is no one solution that universally works across organizations, and frequently the strategy development process within a single organization must evolve year over year to remain useful and productive.
Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight
Futures Studies is frequently (and mistakenly) associated with prediction or prophecy – which it is not. Because of its interdisciplinary structure and breadth, Futures Studies has been notoriously difficult to explain succinctly – even for practiced professionals.
Futures Studies reflects on how today’s changes (and continuities) become tomorrow’s reality. It includes attempts to analyze the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in order to develop foresight and to map alternative futures. The subjects and methods of Futures Studies include possible, probable, and desirable variations or alternative transformations of the present, both social and “natural” (i.e. independent of human impact). A broad field of inquiry, Futures Studies explores and represents what the present could become from multiple interdisciplinary perspectives.
Futures Studies takes as one of its important attributes (epistemological starting points) the on-going effort to analyze images of the future. This effort includes collecting quantitative and qualitative data about the possibility, probability, and desirability of change. The plurality of the term “futures” in Futures Studies denotes the rich variety of images of the future (alternative futures), including the subset of preferable futures (normative futures), that can be studied.
Futures Studies is often summarized as being concerned with “three P’s and a W,” or possible, probable, and preferable futures, plus wildcards, which are low probability but high impact events, should they occur. Thus estimates of probability are involved with two of the four central concerns of futures professionals (discerning and classifying both probable and wildcard events), while considering the range of possible futures, recognizing the plurality of existing images of the future (alternative futures), characterizing and attempting to resolve normative disagreements on the future, and envisioning and creating preferred futures are other major areas of scholarship. Most estimates of probability in Futures Studies are normative and qualitative, though significant progress on statistical and quantitative methods (technology and information growth curves, cliometrics, predictive psychology, prediction markets, etc.) has been made in recent decades.
Like historical studies that try to explain what happened in the past and why, the efforts of Futures Studies try to understand the latent potential of the present. This requires the development of theories of present conditions and how conditions might change. For this task, Futures Studies, as it is generally undertaken, uses a wide range of theoretical models and practical methods, many of which come from other academic disciplines (including economics, sociology, geography, history, engineering, mathematics, psychology, technology, tourism, physics, biology, astronomy, and theology).
Strategic Foresight is a planning oriented discipline related to and in part, derived from Futures Studies. Strategic Foresight encompasses a wide range of methods, tools and techniques derived in part from the field of Futures Studies. Scenario planning, environmental scanning, trend analysis, technology forecasting, systems dynamics, impact assessment, expert opinion polls and alternative futures are illustrative examples of such methodologies.
Effectively executed Strategic Foresight processes endeavor to incorporate diverse and relevant inputs, forecasts and alternatives in the analysis, decision making and planning process. Communication, the tracking and measurement of results and course correction are critical aspects of successful execution of the holistic process.
When properly applied, these methods will yield highly valuable insights and are powerful tools to reduce the uncertainly and complexity that frequently undermines strategy development and execution.
To learn more about the field of Futures Studies click here
To learn more about the field of Strategic Foresight click here